Huahai generic drug tracker(6):Lamo ER’s US market share at 32% in 2Q15

2015-07-30 来源:高盛高华证券有限责任公司 字号: 12 14
     Huahai’s Lamo ER market share stabilized at32% in 2Q15; GSK/Dr. Reddy at 52%/15%
    According to IMS, Huahai’s partner Par Pharm’sLamotrigine extended release tablets (Lamo ER)market share in the US stabilized at 32% in 2Q15,slightly up from 31.8% in 1Q15, though down from33% in 2014. Per unit price came at c.35% of GSK’sLamical XR in 2Q15. Since Par’s Lamo ER debut inJanuary 2013, its average monthly sales (AMS)have been very stable at c.US$8 mn.
    Dr. Reddy’s Lamo ER market share rose to 15% in2Q15, after entering the market in 2Q13, amidst thegradual withdrawal of Wockhardt since 2Q14 asnoted in our previous Tracker series. Wockhardtmight not be able to supply the US market for up toone year, as its inventory continues to be depleted,dropping to zero in 4Q14.
    As the Lamo ER market seems to have matured atquarterly sales of US$70-80 mn and thecompetitive landscape is established with three keyplayers, we do not expect Par to expand its marketshare any further. We see potential genericnewcomers as the key threat for Par maintaining itscurrent market share.
    Other ANDAs: still small in scale, waiting forpotential blockbusters
    Huahai’s US generic drug sales reached US$37.2mn in 2Q15 as per our IMS tracking, with Lamo ERaccounting for a dominant 65% of its total 2Q15US generic drug sales, followed distantly byLosartan, Ropinirole, Irbesartan and Donepezilaccounting for 8%/6%/6%/5% each. We have nottracked sales data for newly approvedLevetiracetam ER and Bupropion ER tablets inJune, which we believe will contribute in 2H15.
    Notwithstanding, these two drugs are unlikely toduplicate Lamo ER’s success, in our view, giventhe much worse competitive landscape with morethan 10 incumbent players already in the market.
    Key for generics’ success: less competition
    We believe the key for generic drug launchsuccess in the US hinges on favorable competitivelandscape, as shown in our study of Hengrui’s(600276.SS, Not Covered) Cyclophosphamide,which tallied sales of US$16.1 mn in June 2015, or34% of total US market share, mainly because it isthe first-to-market injection generic and currentlythere are only two injection makers in the US.